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The Health and Welfare Costs of Sovereign Serial Restructurings: Two Decades of Chinese Lending Practices and Their Impacts on Debtor Nations

Khanh Nguyen headshot

Author: Khanh Nguyen

Since 2000, China has emerged as the largest bilateral creditor to developing countries, offering extensive financing through the Belt and Road Initiative. Amid rising defaults and repayment challenges, Chinese state-owned banks have relied heavily on serial restructurings: maturity extensions without face value reductions. While such strategies preserve loan nominal values in the short term, they risk perpetuating debt cycles without addressing underlying solvency issues. My paper investigates the long-term social and fiscal consequences of serial sovereign restructurings with Chinese creditors between 2000 and 2020, with a focus on health and wefare outcomes in debtor nations. By linking sovereign restructuring practices to long-term welfare impacts, this paper contributes to the literature and calls for more sustainable debt resolution frameworks that safeguard public health and development outcomes. Drawing on a panel dataset of 36 countries and 77 restructuring episodes, I assess outcomes such as child mortality, life expectancy, anemia prevalence, and government health spending. The findings reveal that serial restructurings are associated with significant and enduring declines in public health and welfare outcomes, highlighting the trade-offs debtor governments face between servicing debt and maintaining social investment. The findings also speak to broader policy implications. For creditor institutions, particularly emerging bilateral lenders like China, the results suggest that repeated maturity extensions without meaningful debt relief may generate reputational and geopolitical costs by aggravating hardship in borrowing nations. For multilateral organizations and policymakers, the study reinforces the urgency of incorporating social metrics, such as health and education outcomes, into debt sustainability assessments and restructuring negotiations. Thus, my paper argues for a more holistic approach to sovereign debt management, one that safeguards fiscal space for public investment and places human welfare at the center of financial reform.

 

White Paper

Additional Information

Type

  • White Paper

  • CRADLE White Paper Series

Publication Details

Publication Year: 2025